核抑止を、気候の側から読み直す — 「核の冬」研究の当事者が書いた意見論文を、数字と限界から確かめる

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1. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.2）: 「atmospheric GCM with only 2 levels in the vertical coupled to a mixed-layer ocean and annual average…」 原典 照合済み ↩
2. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.2）: 「ran the atmospheric portion of the model at 4° × 5° latitude–longitude resolution, with 23 vertical …」 原典 照合済み ↩
3. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「run at 1.9° × 2.5° horizontal resolution with 66 layers from the surface to 140 km」 原典 照合済み ↩
4. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「With an estimated 5 Tg of soot from 100 city attacks using 15 kt atomic bombs, the same size that de…」 原典 照合済み ↩
5. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「But the total is still more than 12 000 nuclear weapons, with 4000 deployed」 原典 照合済み ↩
6. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「This would result in the death of 1–2 billion people.」 原典 照合済み ↩
7. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「This would result in the death of most of humanity, more than 5 billion people out of an assumed pop…」 原典 照合済み ↩
8. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「Since then, the global nuclear arsenal has been reduced by a factor of more than six.」 原典 照合済み ↩
9. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「with an injection of soot which is still possible from the use of the current US and Russian nuclear…」 原典 照合済み ↩
10. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.8）: 「But we do not know how to measure this impact.」 原典 照合済み ↩
11. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.5）: 「Toon et al. (2019) realized that Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with…」 原典 照合済み ↩
12. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.1）: 「Received: 22 December 2022 – Discussion started: 10 January 2023 Revised: 8 March 2023 – Accepted: 1…」 原典 照合済み ↩
13. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.1）: 「Alan Robock1, Lili Xia1, Cheryl S. Harrison2, Joshua Coupe5,a, Owen B. Toon3, and Charles G. Bardeen…」 原典 照合済み ↩
14. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「This article is part of the special issue “20 years of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics”.」 原典 照合済み ↩
15. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.1）: 「This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.」 原典 照合済み ↩
16. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.1）: 「Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped」 原典 照合済み ↩
17. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「This research has been supported by the Open Philanthropy Project.」 原典 照合済み ↩
18. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.」 原典 照合済み ↩
19. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「This paper was edited by Rolf Müller and James Allan, and reviewed by Alexander Kmentt and one anony…」 原典 照合済み ↩
20. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「We thank Ambassador Alexander Kmentt and one anonymous reviewer for valuable feedback」 原典 照合済み ↩
21. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.9）: 「But if the nuclear weapons states claim that the only reason they keep their nuclear weapons is for …」 原典 照合済み ↩
22. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.1）: 「because nuclear deterrence doctrines of all nuclear-armed states are based on the capability and rea…」 原典 照合済み ↩
23. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.2）: 「ran the atmospheric portion of the model at 4° × 5° latitude–longitude resolution, with 23 vertical …」 原典 照合済み ↩
24. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「run at 1.9° × 2.5° horizontal resolution with 66 layers from the surface to 140 km」 原典 照合済み ↩
25. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「a war between any nuclear states using less than 1 % of the global arsenal would be similarly catast…」 原典 照合済み ↩
26. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「which after about 2005 excludes large numbers of tactical nuclear weapons as well as weapons in stor…」 原典 照合済み ↩
27. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「There are now nine nuclear states.」 原典 照合済み ↩
28. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「other seven have at most a few hundred each」 原典 照合済み ↩
29. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「assumed to be a global average calorie intake of 1911 kcal per capita per day, and for no internatio…」 原典 照合済み ↩
30. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「For 2010, the total population of the nations used in the study was 6 700 000 000.」 原典 照合済み ↩
31. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「That portion is plotted on this map for a 37 Tg soot injection」 原典 照合済み ↩
32. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「As Fig. 3 but for 150 Tg of smoke injected into the upper atmosphere.」 原典 照合済み ↩
33. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「the 150 Tg case is from Coupe et al. (2019), which assumes attacks on France, Germany, Japan, UK, US…」 原典 照合済み ↩
    関連: ロシア
34. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13 % globally」 原典 照合済み ↩
35. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「and by more than 20 % in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people.」 原典 照合済み ↩
36. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「In contrast, the USA, Russia, and China would lose more than 90 % of their populations due to starva…」 原典 照合済み ↩
    関連: ロシア
37. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「assuming that half the livestock was maintained, and the livestock crop feed that would have gone to…」 原典 照合済み ↩
38. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.3）: 「They can still produce nuclear winter (Robock et al., 2007a; Coupe et al., 2019), so the problem is …」 原典 照合済み ↩
39. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「On 7 July 2017 the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was passed with a vote of 122…」 原典 照合済み ↩
40. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「This “ban treaty” entered into force 90 d after 50 nations had ratified it, which was on 22 January 2…」 原典 照合済み ↩
41. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「As of this writing, 92 nations have signed it and 68 nations have ratified it.」 原典 照合済み ↩
42. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「As of this writing, 92 nations have signed it and 68 nations have ratified it.」 原典 照合済み ↩
43. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.5）: 「Unfortunately, the nine nuclear states have not yet ratified the treaty and have encouraged their all…」 原典 照合済み ↩
44. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「ICAN (https://www.icanw.org/, last access: 12 June 2023) now has 650 partner organizations from 110 …」 原典 照合済み ↩
45. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.5）: 「On 6 October 2017, it was announced that ICAN was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize」 原典 照合済み ↩
46. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.4）: 「Each of these conferences was attended by diplomatic representatives from over 100 nations.」 原典 照合済み ↩
47. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.8）: 「We have noticed a strong uptick in the frequency of the use of the term “nuclear winter” on websites…」 原典 照合済み ↩
48. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.8）: 「We think that our work, with this ubiquitous recognition of the possibility of nuclear winter follow…」 原典 照合済み ↩
49. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「we did not consider direct radioactivity impacts on humans or radioactive contamination of food」 原典 照合済み ↩
50. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「We did not consider the impacts of additional ultraviolet radiation that would hit the surface due t…」 原典 照合済み ↩
51. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.7）: 「We did not have the expertise to address issues such as a general societal collapse, infrastructure …」 原典 照合済み ↩
52. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.5）: 「So far, we have not been able to obtain funding for this work from the US Department of Energy, whic…」 原典 照合済み ↩
    関連: 米国防総省
53. Opinion: How fear of nuclear winter has helped save the world, so far（Copernicus Publications、p.6）: 「There are many other scenarios in which these amounts of soot could be produced by a nuclear war, an…」 原典 照合済み ↩